The probabilities of success?

There are several ways you can succeed.

For example, let’s say Hope has a success rate of 5%.  Prayer might also have the same odds of 5%.  Now multiple these two powerful forces together.  Hope times Prayer = 25%?

Actually, no.  It’s .25%

You might sense the sarcasm here.  Though I literally have seen organizations multiply low-probability tactics and believe that overall success is more likely. As they say, hope & prayer are not a strategy.

Your move, Islam

Osama Bin Laden’s death is a moment of choice for Islam.

Years ago, I had a heated debate with a (very) Republican friend.  I contended that Al Qaeda was in a battle for the hearts and minds of mainstream Islam.  And that the U.S. was a pawn of sorts.  We represent what Islamic fundamentalists oppose; secularism, capitalism, democracy, gender equality.  And moderate Muslims’ empathy toward U.S. culture is what those fundamentalists wanted to prevent.

Today’s event is another decision point for Islam: will Bin Laden become a martyr to others than the extremists?  Or will moderate, mainstream Islam close this chapter of history by turning its back on terrorists?

Choosing to oppose terrorism is not unto itself an endorsement of the U.S.  It’s simply a statement of what Islam does not stand for.  And the lack of support for terrorists means that their safe havens will wither and die.

Your move, Islam.

Ode to my father

[UPDATE: It’s Father’s Day, 2015.  It’s been 5 years since I wrote this. I added some more thoughts at the end.]

Father’s Day is upon us.  My dad passed away recently and of course my thoughts turn to him today.

He had a certain style and flair, even in his last act.  He passed away on April 19 at 89 years old.  On the first day of my new job in Prague.  In the midst of the volcanic eruptions.  Imagine the challenge of getting to Canada in time for his funeral when only 750,000 of my closest friends were stranded too.  Thankfully, I made it.

He was a man of profound gifts and talents.  Certainly one of the smartest people I’ve ever known.  That’s saying something given my 24 years in high tech surrounded by smart, highly educated people.  He’d recite formulas and theorems for his grandchildren, a couple of whom were educated as engineers.  They were surely stunned that he remembered the stuff they were trying so hard to learn in college.

He had a clear, tuneful voice and probably could have been an accomplished performer had he put his mind to it.

He was an athlete, though I’m not sure he ever fancied himself as one.  Just a few years ago, he laced up his old hockey skates, which were the consistency of golf glove leather.  Soft.  No support.  He stepped on the ice and proceeded to glide the length of the rink with a couple of strides.  Amazing.

He learned golf at the age of 40 and became better than 95% of those who play the game.  Most people who play that well start very young when it’s much easier to learn.

His career took him around the world many times over, and he knew a lot about a lot of cultures and places.

For all of these gifts, he was human too.  I sometimes think that the smartest have a hard time enduring the rest of us.  He didn’t suffer fools.  I wouldn’t want to be on the other side of an argument with him at work, just as I didn’t at home.

Age made my father wiser and mellower.  And it’s the latter part of his life I most want to emulate.

May we all be so gifted, and learn the humility to match.

Happy Father’s Day.

UPDATE: It’s Father’s Day, 2015.  I’ve been working away at my start-up for almost 3 years now.  Being a CEO and leader has illustrated for me – and those around me – all of the ways in which I’m both flawed and talented.  My dad was about my present age when I was a teen, when I experienced his mid-aged intensity in all its glory.  More than ever, I know I am my Father’s son.

3 generations: my parents, my son and me